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MATCH INFORMATION
AFL Grand Final 2014
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks
Day: Saturday, 27 September 2014
Time: 2.30pm (AEST)
Venue: MCG Stadium
TV: Channel 7, Fox Footy
The two best teams of 2014 both delivered on Preliminary Final weekend to get through to the Grand Final. With the Sydney vs Hawthorn arguably the biggest rivalry in the sport now, Blindside Sport gives their most comprehensive analysis of the big matchups, the key areas to watch and a final prediction
Form
The Swans rank third in points for and first for least points conceded per game this year. Sydney is 9-4 (7-6 against the line) vs top-8 teams this year. They are 5-1 both head-to-head and against the line vs top-four sides this year and totally outclassed North Melbourne in their preliminary final. The Hawks rank first in both disposals and points per game this season and held on for a tight win over Port Adelaide in their preliminary final. They’re 7-5 (6-6 against the line) vs top-eight sides and 5-3 (4-4 ATL) vs top-four teams this year.
The Swans were at their devastating best against North Melbourne. In a match that posed a bit of a threat to the their challenge for the flag, the Swans completely shut down the powerful running game of North Melbourne, leaving them with absolutely no way of winning. It all started with the intense pressure on the North Melbourne ball carrier – with numbers around the ball, no quick and easy exit from stoppages were allowed for North Melbourne, giving them no outside run and quick delivery into the forward line. Probably the most frightening thing coming out of this match was the strength of the Sydney forward line. With Buddy kicking five, Tippett with four, and Goodes and Parker chipping in with three each, there was no stopping them. This all came about from hard running from half back, giving the North Melbourne defenders a lot to cover when the ball was coming in quickly. If this happens again, only poor goalkicking will beat Sydney on Saturday
Hawthorn
Hawthorn fans are probably still trying to calm down from the fright their team gave them on Saturday evening. In a match that was sewn up half way through the fourth quarter, the Hawks lost all run and pressure on the ball and were overrun for the final ten minutes in devastating fashion by a powerful Port Adelaide side. Luckily for the Hawks, they had built a solid enough lead from early in the second half, which was essentially the difference between the two sides. The ability of the Hawks to weather the storm and stay solid in the first quarter is a real testament to the side. Port Adelaide was all over them in the first quarter, and could have easily built a big lead, but thanks to great possession play and slowing the game down, Hawthorn was able to stop the Port Adelaide momentum from getting out of control. One big question heading into Saturday is the fitness of Jordan Lewis. After sustaining a knock to his knee/lower thigh area, the star midfielder was subbed out the game. If they are down a rotation in the midfield against arguably the best midfield in the competition, they will really be fighting an uphill battle
Without doubt, this is the biggest matchup on Saturday. If Buddy fires, Hawthorn will have a hard time winning this match. Based on their two matches in 2014, the star forward has been getting enough opportunities to really blow out the score, kicking 2.7 and 3.5 in their first and second matches respectively. He is certainly getting the shots on goal, but just hasn’t converted. Is this because of the extra pressure he faces against his former side, or was it just the positioning of the Hawthorn defence not letting easy shots on goal for Buddy? Either way, the added pressure of a Grand Final is something which may have an impact on Buddy’s confidence in front of goals
Lewis Jetta vs Bradley Hill
The battle of outside run will be crucial in a match that will feature a lot of contested ball. Streaming past on the outside of stoppages, both Jetta and Hill can easily gain 80-90 metres with their pace on the ball. Both teams are masters of the stoppages, knowing their structures and easy exits, a lot of which will end up in the hands of these two runners. Neither will play particularly defensive roles on each other, so there should be some lightening action between these two. Lewis Jetta has added some great pressure acts to his game throughout 2014, so his value in the one on one stoppages shouldn’t be underestimated. With Hill in great form after a big showing against Port Adelaide, this will be a great battle to watch
Josh Kennedy vs Liam Shiels
This is all about damage control for Hawthorn. Can Shiels put enough body on Kennedy to limit his impact around the stoppages? Leading the Swans in contested possessions, clearances and disposals, his first use of the ball is so crucial to the Swans and their ability to extract the ball out of tight situations. Shiels won’t be able to match him physically (no midfielder can), but he really must tie up the ball whenever Kennedy gets his hands on it. He was limited to 25 possessions in their Round 18 match, but in their Round 8 match, he completely tore apart the Hawthorn midfield with 36 disposals (23 of them contested), 10 clearances, 11 tackles, 5 inside 50s and a goal. Stopping Kennedy will be a tough ask, but it needs to be done
Jarryd Roughead vs Ted Richards
Possibly the most crucial matchup for the Swans. It might not be on the level that stopping Buddy is for the Hawks, but when Roughead is on song, the forward line is deadly. His effort against Port Adelaide last week earned him best on ground honours with six goals in a tight match. His ability to play like a small forward around stoppages inside the forward 50 makes him a brutal matchup for opposition defenders, and his leading ability and strength just adds so many dimensions to his game. Richards may be one of the best defenders in the game, but he certainly can’t match him in mobility on the ground. He must rely on his other defenders and midfielders to clog up the space around Roughead to deny him easy access to the ball.
Ben McGlynn vs Sam Mitchell
Another crucial matchup in the battle of two elite midfields, this one will be intense. You have the scintillating possession of Sam Mitchell and the ferocity and hard run of Ben McGlynn coming together. McGlynn may have been used more of a tagger earlier in his career, but now with more offensive capabilities, including moving forward for a couple of goals a game, Mitchell may have to be a bit more accountable in this matchup than previously. With McGlynn playing in his first Grand Final after missing 2012 through injury and a Preliminary Final loss to Fremantle in 2013, there is no chance McGlynn will let this game go by without a fight.
Nick Smith vs Cyril Rioli
This matchup is obviously conditional on Rioli being fit for the big one, but assuming he is, this will be the most obvious matchup. In the 2012 Grand Final, this matchup was won comfortably by Nick Smith, who really announced himself to the AFL world with his defensive efforts on Cyril. Gathering only 14 possessions and zero goals, the lightning fast small forward was really only noticed when he was burned on the wing by Lewis Jetta. If he actually does play on Saturday, he will only be around 90% fit at best, but he is not to be underestimated. His touch and tenacity around the ball in the forward line will still light up opposition defences. A shut-down role by Smith is a must here
Dan Hannebery vs Will Langford
With Hannebery back in top form after coming back from injury, his all round game is crucial to the Swans’ chances of winning. This bloke does it all – hard contested clearance winning footy, outside run, courage heading into the contest, goals, and hard two way running. As one of the fittest, if not the fittest in the AFL, Hannebery will not stop running. Will Langford has a big job here, especially after his tagging efforts in Round 8 had no effect on the Sydney midfielder. Hawthorn can’t afford another 40 disposals, 6 tackles and 9 inside 50s from Hannebery, so expect a tighter performance from Langford. He has improved throughout the year, but is still questionable against the heavyweights of the competition – namely Boak and Ebert from last week and Mundy, Hill and Fyfe from Round 21. His performance after being moved to Selwood at half time in the Qualifying Final against Geelong was excellent though, showing that when he really applies himself, he can shut down the big names. A little inconsistent as a young player, but expect him to shut down Hannebery from time to time.
MATCH INFORMATION
AFL Grand Final 2014
Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks
Day: Saturday, 27 September 2014
Time: 2.30pm (AEST)
Venue: MCG Stadium
TV: Channel 7, Fox Footy
The two best teams of 2014 both delivered on Preliminary Final weekend to get through to the Grand Final. With the Sydney vs Hawthorn arguably the biggest rivalry in the sport now, Blindside Sport gives their most comprehensive analysis of the big matchups, the key areas to watch and a final prediction
Form
The Swans rank third in points for and first for least points conceded per game this year. Sydney is 9-4 (7-6 against the line) vs top-8 teams this year. They are 5-1 both head-to-head and against the line vs top-four sides this year and totally outclassed North Melbourne in their preliminary final. The Hawks rank first in both disposals and points per game this season and held on for a tight win over Port Adelaide in their preliminary final. They’re 7-5 (6-6 against the line) vs top-eight sides and 5-3 (4-4 ATL) vs top-four teams this year.
Sydney
The Swans were at their devastating best against North Melbourne. In a match that posed a bit of a threat to the their challenge for the flag, the Swans completely shut down the powerful running game of North Melbourne, leaving them with absolutely no way of winning. It all started with the intense pressure on the North Melbourne ball carrier – with numbers around the ball, no quick and easy exit from stoppages were allowed for North Melbourne, giving them no outside run and quick delivery into the forward line. Probably the most frightening thing coming out of this match was the strength of the Sydney forward line. With Buddy kicking five, Tippett with four, and Goodes and Parker chipping in with three each, there was no stopping them. This all came about from hard running from half back, giving the North Melbourne defenders a lot to cover when the ball was coming in quickly. If this happens again, only poor goalkicking will beat Sydney on Saturday
Hawthorn
Hawthorn fans are probably still trying to calm down from the fright their team gave them on Saturday evening. In a match that was sewn up half way through the fourth quarter, the Hawks lost all run and pressure on the ball and were overrun for the final ten minutes in devastating fashion by a powerful Port Adelaide side. Luckily for the Hawks, they had built a solid enough lead from early in the second half, which was essentially the difference between the two sides. The ability of the Hawks to weather the storm and stay solid in the first quarter is a real testament to the side. Port Adelaide was all over them in the first quarter, and could have easily built a big lead, but thanks to great possession play and slowing the game down, Hawthorn was able to stop the Port Adelaide momentum from getting out of control. One big question heading into Saturday is the fitness of Jordan Lewis. After sustaining a knock to his knee/lower thigh area, the star midfielder was subbed out the game. If they are down a rotation in the midfield against arguably the best midfield in the competition, they will really be fighting an uphill battle
Lance Franklin vs Josh Gibson
Without doubt, this is the biggest matchup on Saturday. If Buddy fires, Hawthorn will have a hard time winning this match. Based on their two matches in 2014, the star forward has been getting enough opportunities to really blow out the score, kicking 2.7 and 3.5 in their first and second matches respectively. He is certainly getting the shots on goal, but just hasn’t converted. Is this because of the extra pressure he faces against his former side, or was it just the positioning of the Hawthorn defence not letting easy shots on goal for Buddy? Either way, the added pressure of a Grand Final is something which may have an impact on Buddy’s confidence in front of goals
Lewis Jetta vs Bradley Hill
The battle of outside run will be crucial in a match that will feature a lot of contested ball. Streaming past on the outside of stoppages, both Jetta and Hill can easily gain 80-90 metres with their pace on the ball. Both teams are masters of the stoppages, knowing their structures and easy exits, a lot of which will end up in the hands of these two runners. Neither will play particularly defensive roles on each other, so there should be some lightening action between these two. Lewis Jetta has added some great pressure acts to his game throughout 2014, so his value in the one on one stoppages shouldn’t be underestimated. With Hill in great form after a big showing against Port Adelaide, this will be a great battle to watch
Josh Kennedy vs Liam Shiels
This is all about damage control for Hawthorn. Can Shiels put enough body on Kennedy to limit his impact around the stoppages? Leading the Swans in contested possessions, clearances and disposals, his first use of the ball is so crucial to the Swans and their ability to extract the ball out of tight situations. Shiels won’t be able to match him physically (no midfielder can), but he really must tie up the ball whenever Kennedy gets his hands on it. He was limited to 25 possessions in their Round 18 match, but in their Round 8 match, he completely tore apart the Hawthorn midfield with 36 disposals (23 of them contested), 10 clearances, 11 tackles, 5 inside 50s and a goal. Stopping Kennedy will be a tough ask, but it needs to be done
Jarryd Roughead vs Ted Richards
Possibly the most crucial matchup for the Swans. It might not be on the level that stopping Buddy is for the Hawks, but when Roughead is on song, the forward line is deadly. His effort against Port Adelaide last week earned him best on ground honours with six goals in a tight match. His ability to play like a small forward around stoppages inside the forward 50 makes him a brutal matchup for opposition defenders, and his leading ability and strength just adds so many dimensions to his game. Richards may be one of the best defenders in the game, but he certainly can’t match him in mobility on the ground. He must rely on his other defenders and midfielders to clog up the space around Roughead to deny him easy access to the ball.
Ben McGlynn vs Sam Mitchell
Another crucial matchup in the battle of two elite midfields, this one will be intense. You have the scintillating possession of Sam Mitchell and the ferocity and hard run of Ben McGlynn coming together. McGlynn may have been used more of a tagger earlier in his career, but now with more offensive capabilities, including moving forward for a couple of goals a game, Mitchell may have to be a bit more accountable in this matchup than previously. With McGlynn playing in his first Grand Final after missing 2012 through injury and a Preliminary Final loss to Fremantle in 2013, there is no chance McGlynn will let this game go by without a fight.
Nick Smith vs Cyril Rioli
This matchup is obviously conditional on Rioli being fit for the big one, but assuming he is, this will be the most obvious matchup. In the 2012 Grand Final, this matchup was won comfortably by Nick Smith, who really announced himself to the AFL world with his defensive efforts on Cyril. Gathering only 14 possessions and zero goals, the lightning fast small forward was really only noticed when he was burned on the wing by Lewis Jetta. If he actually does play on Saturday, he will only be around 90% fit at best, but he is not to be underestimated. His touch and tenacity around the ball in the forward line will still light up opposition defences. A shut-down role by Smith is a must here
Dan Hannebery vs Will Langford
With Hannebery back in top form after coming back from injury, his all round game is crucial to the Swans’ chances of winning. This bloke does it all – hard contested clearance winning footy, outside run, courage heading into the contest, goals, and hard two way running. As one of the fittest, if not the fittest in the AFL, Hannebery will not stop running. Will Langford has a big job here, especially after his tagging efforts in Round 8 had no effect on the Sydney midfielder. Hawthorn can’t afford another 40 disposals, 6 tackles and 9 inside 50s from Hannebery, so expect a tighter performance from Langford. He has improved throughout the year, but is still questionable against the heavyweights of the competition – namely Boak and Ebert from last week and Mundy, Hill and Fyfe from Round 21. His performance after being moved to Selwood at half time in the Qualifying Final against Geelong was excellent though, showing that when he really applies himself, he can shut down the big names. A little inconsistent as a young player, but expect him to shut down Hannebery from time to time.